ERDOGAN AND GULEN: THICK AS THIEVES

By David L. Phillips

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen, the Muslim cleric who died last week, were political allies and business partners. They engineered an Islamist take-over of the civil service and police until a disagreement in 2013 dividing the spoils. When Gulen’s allies in the judiciary launched an investigation into Erdogan’s dealings, Erdogan targeted Gulen to cover up the government’s corruption and criminality.

Was the alleged coup of July 2016, a genuine effort to overthrow the Turkish government or did Erdogan stage-manage the events to justify a crack-down on the Gulen movement? Erdogan accused Gulen of masterminding the coup, which he vehemently denied.

Turkey’s military, which Erdogan accused of plotting the coup, is nothing but competent. But the coup was so poorly executed, that some call it a “false coup”.

Research on conducting a coup suggests best practices. The most important lesson is to capture or kill the head of government while immobilizing loyal military and security units. 

The conspirators take control of conventional media, television, and radio, as well as social media. This was not the case in Turkey.

A coup leader typically presents himself to the public so people can attach a face to the transfer of power and be reassured.

Other events cast doubt on the credibility of the putschists.

Erdogan was vacationing in Marmaris on July 15. When mutinous soldiers arrived at his hotel to arrest him, he had already checked out and was on his way to the Dalaman airport.

How could the conspirators have been unaware of Erdogan’s movements? Why wasn’t Erdogan apprehended before his presidential plane took off? Why didn’t the coup plotters use F-16s to intercept or shoot down the plane?

Only TRT and CNN Turk were taken off the air. The conspirators did not suspend social media. Why did the coup plotters fail to take over major private networks that most Turks actually watch? Why did they allow social media to function uninterrupted?

Erdogan disappeared during the coup. When he surfaced in Istanbul the following morning, he called on followers to take to the streets in defense of Turkey’s “democracy”. Imams echoed Erdogan’s appeal. The chant “Allahu akbar” – God is great – reverberated from the muezzins of mosques. Many thousands of supporters went to Ataturk Airport and Taksim Square in Istanbul. They also gathered outside the presidential palace in Ankara to defend Turkey’s democracy.

While imams called Erdogan’s supporters to the streets, the conspirators issued instructions for people to stay indoors, which allowed Erdogan’s supporters free reign.

Why did land forces and gendarmerie fail to lock down major thoroughfares? They failed to stop traffic across the Bosphorus Bridge and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge in Istanbul.

Renegade F-16s allegedly bombed the army headquarters and the Turkish Grand National Assembly. However, structural damage was minimal. Crater analysis suggests that explosives inside the building were used, rather than high impact ordinance of fighter jets.

In his first public remarks during the early morning of July 16, Erdogan issued a chilling threat: “This latest action is an act of treason. This attempt, this move, is a great gift from God for us. Why? Because the move will allow us to clean up the armed forces, which needs to be completely cleaned.” He vowed to purge all state institutions of “the virus” spread by Gulen’s.

True to his word, Erdogan cracked down. 261 civilians were killed, and others disappeared. The Turkish government had prepared lists of oppositionists and arrested them. About 50,000 members of the security services and civil servants were detained and another 100,000 were dismissed from their jobs. Members of parliament, judges, and educators were also dismissed or arrested. Journalists were rounded up and jailed.

What explains Erdogan’s actions? A senior official in Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency (MIT) told me that Erdogan and Gulen had been political and economic partners for years. Gulen was collecting customs fees and sharing them with Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. The honeymoon between them ended in 2013 when Gulen’s police and judiciary launched a corruption investigation into Erdogan’s inner circle, including his family. Erdogan had to discredit or eliminate Gulen to cover his tracks. 

The MIT official also told me that Turkish Special Agents allegedly tried to assassinate Gulen at his home in the Poconos where he lived in exile. Erdogan hired Michael Flynn, Trump’s disgraced national security adviser, to kidnap Gulen and conduct a rendition to Turkey.

Erdogan appealed to the US Government to extradite Gulen. But the Justice Department refused to act, citing a lack of credible evidence. 

Gulen may be gone and taken secrets with him to the grave. Erdogan’s corruption will be revealed eventually. His government is corrupt to the core.

David L. Phillips is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program